Who Pays?  You Pay!

City documents show a price tag for brand new infrastructure called for in the Mayor's plans for South Lake Union of

 $1.017 Billion

A Detailed Breakdown of South Lake Union Costs including:

Chart of Total Costs:

Introduction - City inflated benefit estimates while ignoring or minimizing costs:

Our Critique of the Mayor's Benefits Analysis Recently Released:

The Mayor's Recently Released Report by Consultant Paul Sommers Pumps Up Benefits While Ignoring the Costs of the Biotech Agenda for South Lake Union

1. The report inflates the benefits to a high degree, first by doing an assessment on a full build out through 2025, when all other existing studies look only at build-out through 2020.

2.  Indirect Costs:  What for example is the cost to surrounding neighborhoods, when all this growth drives up housing costs and spills traffic, noise, and air pollution into surrounding neighborhoods.

3.  Lastly, they have grossly underestimated direct costs to the City and especially to the general fund.  

Displacement Coalition Report: A Look at the Mayor and Paul Allen/Vulcan’s Transportation Plans for South Lake Union – Environmentally Sound Choices for Seattle and the Region Are Sacrificed to Meet Paul Allen’s Needs

* Documents show Vulcan dictating Mayor's transportation agenda in South Lake Union while Council left in dark

* Regional and Local Transportation Priorities Are Warped to Meet Vulcan’s Needs

Coalition Files Ethics Complaint Against the Mayor and Vulcan for Violations of City Ethics Rules

Articles Begin Here:

Introduction - City inflated benefit estimates while ignoring or minimizing costs:

The Mayor, Jan Drago, and several other Councilmembers don’t seem to care about the costs and impacts associated with the extraordinary plan to turn South Lake Union into a global center for biotech development.  So far, they have not required any comprehensive environmental impact statement or any other thorough assessment of the total costs and impacts. The Mayor's office has hired a economic consultant to examine the alleged benefits of their plans for this area but have conveniently withheld any full cost assessment. For a look at problems associated with the Mayor's benefit assessment, click here for a critique.  In addition, they show little or no interest to date in accompanying these grand plans with tools to ensure that impacts are mitigated and that Paul Allen and other developers at least share in these staggering costs. They’ve left the job of doing a thorough cost assessment up to us and up to the newspapers.  After an extensive review of city documents obtained through public disclosure requests, here is our summary of the public financial cost associated with the expanded infrastructure needed to accommodate the growth they are planning for in South Lake Union.

The proposed rezones for South Lake Union are designed to set in motion an additional 10-11 million square feet of office space and biotech development in South Lake Union through the year 2020.  While the Mayor’s report looks at alleged benefits of this planned growth, he and the Mayor have conveniently overlooked the enormous financial costs to taxpayers associated with such a high level of planned development crammed into this relatively small area north of downtown.  The anticipated level of growth amounts to the equivalent to 6-7 Columbia Towers worth of development in South Lake Union over the next 18 years. 

Note that our list below of costs has been divided into those items that the Mayor's office has publicly disclosed and those items that the Mayor's office to date has withheld from public view.  Soon after the Mayor was elected (his first meeting as Mayor was in fact with Vulcan representatives to map out South Lake Union's future), he created an interdepartmental team consisting of approximately 20-25 staff from across all departments with the task of working with Vulcan and other biotech representatives to implement these plans.  Public records show this team has met over 70 times since the Summer of 2002.  The cost of this planning alone already has run into the millions of dollars.  Add that to the extraordinary cost of all these improvements we cite below and it will place an enormous drain on local, state, and federal dollars earmarked for Seattle and the region.  While the Mayor's office has attempted to trivialize this hit on city, state, and local resources he has grossly over inflated the alleged benefits of these plans. Again check out our critique of the Mayor's benefits analysis.  The big losers of course will be our neighborhoods and our citizens who will go without basic services desperately needed in this community. Our City has cut 100 million from its budget in the last three years at great pain to our communities, while our Mayor continues to map out these extraordinary plans for South Lake Union at extraordinary cost to all of us.  return to top

Transportation Improvements Identified by the Mayor                                                                                Total

1. Trolley               ($20-25 million paid by taxpayers, rest paid for from LID theoretically)                      $45 million

2. Mercer Corridor in SLU – adding lanes from Aurora to Freeway

    and making it 2-way while reducing Valley St.                                                                                            $90 million

3. Building street & pedestrian overpassses across Aurora north of Battery St. Tunnel                        $80 million

    they're calling this "reconnecting the grid" from the Seattle Center to South Lake Union

    also called "Viaduct Northern Portal" in attempt to insert funding for this in any Viaduct

    funding package        return to top

Transportation costs not acknowledged by the Mayor

4. Various unspecified improvements growing out of 2001 sale of City Land

    to Vulcan, portion of 20 million dollar sale for traffic improvements in SLU                                            $15 million

5. Terry Avenue Improvements - turning this into a extravagant boulevard with extensive                    $10 million

    pedestrian amenities.  So far the Mayor's office has not made public the full costs of this

    but documents we found indicate an amount in the order of ten million dollars  

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City Light Energy Improvements Identified and Acknowledged by Mayor:

1.  Broad Street Substation feeder improvements                                                                                           $10 million

2.  Interbay Substation construction                                                                                                                $21 million

3.  Adding a new substation in South Lake Union                                                                                         $149 million

City Light Energy Costs so far Not Acknowledged by Mayor:

4. Undergrounding of wiring in South Lake Union  (no other community in Seattle has

    been accorded such a benefit - a cost under the current rate structure that would

    translate directly into higher utilitity rates for all other customers by 2-4%                                            $200 million

    for more information on this, click here:

     http://student-voices.org/news/index.php3?NewsID=9267

5. Creation of an "energy district" in South Lake Union  (this involves piping cold water from the

    depths of Lake Washington over to South Lake Union to provide a centralized system of

    chilled, hot, and steam water (fiber optics also added) and supplied to biotech users in area-

    once used, the now warmer water would be recycled into Lake Union.                                                    $135 million

 6. Creation and implementation of an automated metering system for South Lake Union.

    No other area of Seattle has this and City Light would pursue it as a pilot program to see if

    in the long run in improved efficiencies and cut costs.  It would replace the physical need of

    actually reading each businesses meter with a electrical or radio controlled system of reading

    each meter thus eliminating labor costs.        return to top                                                                         $10 million

South Lake Union Waterfront Park (acknowledged by the Mayor)

1.  The Parks levy covers $5 million of the cost but City could be on hook for more)

If monies aren’t raised as expected from private sources the city cost would go up                               $28 million                            

Other Potential Capital Costs (not acknowledged by the Mayor):

1.  We found several City documents showing strong interest in building a

“centralized parking facility” ala the Nordstrom’s Parking Garage in South Lake Union

one document showing a possible location between Valley and Mercer and

Westlake and Eastlake ...no one from the City is acknowledging this however right

now given that the City just approved a reduction in parking requirements for all

new South Lake Union Biotech redevelopment                         Nordstrom’s garage cost                         $70 million

3.   Expansion & necessary upgrades of Sewer, Solid Waste, and Water Systems)                                 $10 million

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Operation and maintenance costs (not acknowledged by the Mayor):

associated with the added increment of growth in South Lake Union and would be paid

from the General Fund on annual basis:                   

1.  Added Police and Fire Service  (1 million annually X 18 years)                                                              $18 million

2.  Trolley (estimated annual subsidy of 2 million per year for 18 years based on

comparison of the annual costs needed to run the Portland Trolley system                                            $36 million

3.  Remaining Operating and maintaining  sewer, water, energy, streets, lighting etc

estimated conservatively at 5 million per year for 18 years

amount lower in first years, higher in later years                                                                                            $90 million

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                                                                                                Total identified cost:                    $1.017 Billion     

Number of Jobs the Mayor Expects in South Lake Union Over by 2020:       20,000 jobs

                                                                            Amount of Subsidy Per Job Created:           $50,850  per job

   HUD guidelines for acceptable ratio of public subsidy per job created:        $2000 - $15,000 per job

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Not a good investment if our goal is job creation - here's why:

Assuming that South Lake Union actually will generate 10 million square feet of new office and biotech development in 18 years – a very big if – that would generate approximately 20,000 jobs.  In effect the amount of public subsidy per job created equals $50,850. This $50,850 figure assumes all those 20,000 jobs actually will occur – a highly speculative assumption and that all those jobs will be new jobs not just jobs relocated from other areas of Seattle or the region.  As our critique of the Mayor's benefit assessment indicates (click here for that assessment), his consultant did not factor out the number of jobs from the larger total that simply relocated into South Lake Union from elsewhere in Seattle.  We could assume a significant percentage, 10-20%, of any new jobs in SLU will simply be jobs relocating from elsewhere.  If 10 -20 percent are existing jobs, then the total new jobs range from 16,000-18,000.  That's a ratio of public dollars per job of $56,000-$63,000.  Note that the Department of Housing and Urban Development concludes that government programs providing a public subsidy of over $15,000 per job is considered excessive.  Most government subsidy programs are limited to an even lower ratio and successfully produce jobs at much less cost per job.  See especially programs aimed at stimulating start-up small businesses in inner-city poor communities and communities of color that produce jobs at a public cost of $2000-$4000 per job created.  Imagine what we could do with a fraction of the dollars our Mayor has earmarked for South Lake Union.  Imagine using a fraction of those dollars to stimulate new jobs tailored to the needs of the unemployed and underemployed and for small businesses in SE or SW Seattle.  These communities and people within these communities are crying our for this kind of stimulus.   return to top

More about our sources for this information:

We have reviewed over 20,000 city documents from virtually every department in the City including Public Utilities, City Light, Transportation, the City Council, Mayor's Office and Planning and Development (formerly land use and construction). Also, some of our information was drawn from the Seattle Times, Seattle PI, The Stranger, and Seattle Weekly articles.  Note that we have provided estimates of Operation and Maintenance Costs except with respect to fire service costs referenced in a April 28^th Times article by Bob Young.  Also, the trolley’s operation and maintenance expenses we cite above are estimates based on our knowledge that a similar Portland system operates annually at a deficit of approximately $2 million dollars per year.. HUD figures on acceptable subsidy to jobs thresholds are drawn from the HUD website.  More detailed documentation for all of these costs can be provided upon request  632-0668 for Coalition

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Our Critique of the Mayor's Benefits Analysis Recently Released:

- So far, the Mayor's promise to provide a true assessment of the costs and benefits associated with his  plans for South Lake Union have been very little more than a well orchestrated public relations effort clearly designed to influence public opinion and upcoming City Council votes on the Mayor's biotech plans for South Lake Union (SLU). 

 - Our observations on the Sommers Biotech Report -  released to pave the way for the allocation of hundreds of millions in city, state, and federal funds needed to fuel the Mayor's plans for South Lake Union. 

For over six months, the Mayor has promised the City Council a completed report that would outline objectively both costs and benefits associated with expanding biotech development in South Lake Union.  Toward that end, he commissioned “economist” Paul Sommers to complete that analysis.  Several councilmembers have said that before voting for or against the biotech rezones in South Lake Union, they wanted to see and completed "cost-benefit" study. Turns out, the Sommers report leaves out a large chunk of "costs" accompanying the Mayor's biotech plans, while grossly (and I emphasize grossly overstates the benefits).  The release of this "report" is clearly designed by the Mayor, Vulcan, and Councilmember Drago to pump up the value of going ahead with the allocation of millions of limited public funds for the Mayor's extraordinary plans for South Lake Union.  Conspicuously the report fails to include a host of costs. 

And what about the objectivity of Mr. Sommers?  Why has he allowed himself to be used in this fashion? It turns out that Paul Sommers sits on the Economic Development Council of Seattle-King County, joining Amgen, Vulcan, and other biotech interests that either serve on that board or are its dues paying members ($2000-$30,000 to join). One of EDC’s primary goals is the promotion of high tech and biotech jobs for the region. It's a set-up job and Sommers the so-call unbiased researcher is helping do the dirty work.  Mr. Sommers also makes a living by offering himself out as a consultant and speaker to the public sector advising counties and cities on what they need to do to attract biotech and high tech development (including Spokane, Clallam, and Jefferson Counties).  He also has co-authored at least on publication aimed at outline the merits of biotech and  what is required for areas to attract these jobs... How can he possible bring objectivity to any cost-benefit assessment. 

Regarding specific concerns we have with the Paul Sommers "Cost-Benefit" Report:

1. The report inflates the benefits to a high degree, first by doing an assessment on a full build out through 2025, when all other existing studies look only at build-out through 2020.  Secondly, they simply assume a full build out - that we actually will see 11,000,000 square feet of biotech and office development and 23,000 jobs (with a net gain of 7.8 million sq ft).   This projection is highly speculative, and little more than wishful thinking - as the Brookings Study and other assessments indicate.  Also, they appear to have failed to factor out 10 or 20 percent of that total expected growth that will be due simply to businesses and development relocating from other parts of downtown and the city into SLU.  These are revenue gains in SLU that are also revenue losses for other parts of the City and should be excluded from a benefits assessment.  Furthermore, they should have subtracted out of their study - any benefits associated with the 3 million square feet of office and biotech development already planned or that will occur anyway under the status quo in SLU without the rezones, without the added infrastructure and associated costs.  These are jobs and tax revenue for the City that will happen anyway without the Mayor's grand biotech plans, rezones, and 100's of millions in new infrastructure.  Sommer's glowing revenue and jobs estimates should be cut nearly in half and based solely on the added increment of growth above what would occur any way under the status quo.  Also, they've included indirect benefits - in terms of indirect jobs and tax revenues (multiplier effects) and if they're going to do that, they should have include an assessment of all indirect costs (all of which they've conveniently excluded). return to top

2.  Indirect Costs:  What for example is the cost to surrounding neighborhoods, when all this growth drives up housing costs and spills traffic, noise, and air pollution into surrounding neighborhoods.  When housing is demolished in the study area and in surrounding neighborhoods, what is the cost to the City to provide shelter and services for those displaced, and what is the cost to replace those units that are lost?  Few of those taking these jobs will live in the SLU area and that places undue demands and costs on housing and on our transportation systems.  What are these indirect costs? What about loss of jobs displaced from South Lake Union due to this redevelopment or loss of jobs outside the study area in surrounding neighborhoods (when property values make it untenable for existing industry and small businesses to remain).  What are the lost opportunity costs - when we pour millions down in SLU that otherwise could have been used out in our neighborhoods especially in  SE Seattle to produce a far greater number of jobs (tailored to community needs and communities of color) and how much more tax revenues would that have generated for the City in those areas - both direct and indirect...etc.. return to top

3.  Lastly, they have grossly underestimated direct costs to the City and especially to the general fund.  Costs left out include:

a) Annual increases in operations and maintenance not included - which could amount to 5-10 annually for police, fire, water, sewer, solid waste, street repair, transit etc...(Again this is only operation and maintenance not capital for a total cost of 100-140 million over 18 years (to 2020). I don't believe these are inflated numbers by any stretch - virtually all of this expense comes out of the general fund.

b). We have documents showing a parking garage a la Nordstrom's downtown adding to the costs. One document from the Utilities Department indicates a location for this garage somewhere between Valley and Mercer and Westlake and Eastlake.  In 1995 dollars, the Nordstom's garage cost to the City would add another 70 million dollars.

c). Since they're including development already in the pipeline in their costs assessments, they should have included costs already spent since 2000 when Allen obtained city property and as part of that deal, the City promised 15 million in new infrastructure for SLU.

d)  There is no assessment of costs associated with sewer, solid waste, or water in the Mayors assessements - capital improvements that also will have to be made to accommodate this accelerated level of expected growth.  This could run around 10 million more based on documents we found

d) The Heartland Study shows displacement of 3-4 million square feet of existing commercial space over the 20 year timeline and loss of about 50 low income housing units.... There is an enormous cost to relocating these businesses, assisting employees losing jobs, providing social services and replacement housing to those who are displaced including some rendered homeless.

e) Operation and maintenance of the trolley will require probably 1-2 million dollars a year to service. Much of this will be absorbed from general fund. This is what it costs per year to run Portland's streetcar.

f). The statement made by the Mayor's Office that residential ratepayers will not be hit with higher utility bills to help cover the energy costs - that all of these costs will be covered for by the new users in SLU is wholly and completely false.  A substantial portion of that cost will be paid for by existing ratepayers.  The Sommers Report assumes 165 million dollar for a new substation in South Lake Union and the cost of running new distribution systems from two existing substations into South Lake Union.  But his assessment did not include a 65-200 million dollar cost for undergrounding the area.  City Light documents show that City Light, pushed by Vulcan and the Mayor, has been planning for this since as far back as 2000.  The Sommers report also did not include the 135 million dollar cost of creating a energy district in South Lake Union - a centralized facilities for steam, hot water, chilled water and emergency power for the area.  And the Sommers report did not include the 10 million dollar cost of going to automated metering in now being planned for the area, according to City Light documents.  City Light documents also indicate that unless there are changes in the rate structure or other methods are implemented to ensure that each new developer in South Lake Union pays upfront added charges - these costs will be passed on to other ratepayers and could amount to as much as 2-4% general rate increase.  City Light documents also say there will be additional increases in rates if the expected growth in South Lake Union does not pan out.  This would leave additional "stranded costs" that would have to be covered by other ratepayers. 

h)  Also, their pie charts assume a substantial amount of "uncommitted" or non-guaranteed sources of state and federal funding

The Mayor's office assumes that federal and state funds will be found to pay for most of the transportation improvements planned for South Lake Union.  It's by inflating these numbers, that allows them to grossly deflate the hit on the City's budget. When all or a portion of those federal funds or state funds don't come through...it will require the City to come through with tens of millions more in city dollars taken right out of the City budget.

- John V. Fox for the Coalition

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Displacement Coalition Report:

* Documents show Vulcan dictating Mayor's transportation   agenda in South Lake Union while Council left in dark

* Regional and Local Transportation Priorities Are Warped to Meet Vulcan’s Needs

The Seattle Displacement Coalition has been busy reviewing city documents and reviewing detailed information on the City’s plans for South Lake Union (SLU).  After a close review of these materials, here’s our report on the City’s transportation plans for South Lake Union, what it will cost, and our analysis of its impacts on our communities and region:

Contents of this report in order and by topic: (click on topic to jump to that section of our report or read along)

-         The Coalition’s disclosure requests show countless hours of staff time allocated to the Mayor’s plans, much of it with Vulcan’s direct involvement but not our City Council:

-         The Transportation Component and what it will cost – over $250 million total

-         The total includes $80 million dollars disguised as the “Viaduct Northern Portal” but really is a South Lake Union improvement also called "reconnecting the grid" across Aurora between Seattle Center and the SLU with $68 million drawn from regional transportation package (RTID)

-         The total also includes 90 million for Mercer/Valley reconfiguration with 71 million of it drawn from regional transportation package (RTID)

-         So what’s wrong with all this if it helps solve the Mercer Mess – put simply city documents say that it doesn’t and may even make things worse? 

-         Other components of the Mayor/Vulcan’s transportation plans for the area include:

-         The Street Car (to nowhere) circling through Paul Allen’s properties down Westlake and back – will cost $45 million with half covered by the public

-         They plan costly improvements down Terry Avenue where many of Paul Allen's properties are located

-         Documents we have found also seem to indicate that the Mayor and his planners, helped along by Vulcan, is trying real hard to warp Sound Transit's choice of a northern route from downtown – pushing the Eastlake Route

-         And Eastlake Route Also Threatens Low Income Housing and Longtime Businesses

-         But here’s the real kicker – Job/Housing Imbalance Exacerbated – The Mayor’s South Lake Union plans translate directly into more cars and pollution for our communities

-         And more housing losses, demolition and gentrification will also result

-         Despite Environmental Consequences – Several environmental groups may buy off on the Mayor’s South Lake Union Agenda

Our Report Begins Here:

- The Coalition’s disclosure requests show countless hours of staff time allocated to the Mayor’s plans, much of it with Vulcan’s direct involvement but not our City Council:

Over the last 18 months, the Mayor’s planning office has convened over 60 meetings of the “South Lake Union Planning Team” to map out the Mayor’s overall strategy for South Lake Union. In meetings that last anywhere from 1-2 hours, the group delves into every nuance of its plans including how to ensure proper press coverage. The meetings are attended by 10-20 staff across departments including the Mayor’s Office, City Light, Seattle Department of Transportation, the Planning Department, Utilities Department and others.  Clearly the focus of our allegedly “objective” planners down at City Hall is not whether we should launch a major effort in South Lake Union nor is it even an attempt to uncover costs and impacts before we proceed.  The Mayor has told them to jump and rather than asking “how high?”, they’ve just started jumping and jumping and jumping.

While you or your neighborhood organization may have trouble locating even one staffmember to help you out, literally hundreds and hundreds of hours of staff time have been dedicated solely to the task of implementing the Mayor’s South Lake Union Strategy.  Subgroups and Advisory Groups have spun-off from these meetings. Several million dollars have been allocated for studies and consultants alone.  What’s also noteworthy, most of this is being done without the City Council’s knowledge.  They simply are not part of these discussions either by choice or more likely because the Mayor has purposely left them out.  By contrast, our review of city documents indicates that much of this planning has been closely coordinated with Paul Allen’s Vulcan Development company.  Its team of staff (a number of whom are former city staff themselves) often sit in on these closed door meetings and discussions.  The Mayor has given full authorization to this effort and is regularly briefed by city and Vulcan staff.  return to this report's contents:

- The Transportation Component and what it will cost – over $250 million total

A significant portion of these discussions, research and subsequent planning work has been focused on making over $250 million dollar worth of transportation “improvements” to the South Lake Union area.  I have placed “improvements” in quotes because our review suggests these are not improvements at all at least not in terms of making a discernible positive impact on our local and regional transportation picture and they are as distant as any set of solutions could be to the sustainable, eco-friendly, transit-friendly nirvana portrayed by our Mayor and the Vulcan team. 

Here's a breakdown of what right now is planned for South Lake Union and what it will cost both in dollar terms and other impacts.  return to this report's contents:

- The total includes $80 million dollars disguised as the “Viaduct Northern Portal” but really is a South Lake Union Improvement involving "reconnecting the grid" across Aurora between Seattle Center and the SLU with $68 million drawn from regional transportation package (RTID).   Bridges for cars and pedestrians would be built across Aurora north of the Battery St. reconnecting the Center to SLU. One option calls for lidding Aurora at an additional $50 million to $100 million, but that was not included in the plan the Mayor announced last November.  Keep your eyes out and your ears pealed in case they later put this component back into their plan. 

Take note, they are disguising this as a viaduct improvement and and enveloping 68 million of the $80 million dollar cost into the Regional Transportation Package (RTID) – to be placed before County voters later this year or next year.  Note also, that right now, the regional body of electeds putting this package together are regularly consulting with a select “advisory group” that includes Vulcan representatives.  Note also that the package they’ve drawn up does not begin to meet all of the Viaduct’s total financial need running to as much as a billion or more dollars. 

- The total also includes 90 million for Mercer/Valley reconfiguration with 71 million of it drawn from regional transportation package (RTID).  The Mayor’s office is calling this a regional solution and therefore worthy of tacking into the regional transportation package.  When voters find out it will do nothing to improve congestion and travel times through that area – not one iota (see below for proof of that) it’s more likely to just another nail in the RTID coffin. City General fund will be used to cover $19 million of the the $71 million dollar cost. By the way, these “improvements” will likely require the City to buy back the property along Mercer that it sold two years ago to Vulcan at a cut rate (that sale of five city properties is an interesting story in itself for one for another time).  Those properties cost Vulcan $20 million – a steal – they’re now worth at least twice that.  By a reconfiguration, these “improvements” call for narrowing Valley fronting Lake Union, providing pedestrian amenities and access across Valley to the $25 million dollar park and lake, while making Mercer a 2-way street.  This also happens to conveniently move or rather situate Vulcan's properties closer to the lake. With the park and pedestrian connections from Vulcan’s properties to the park, the park begins to look a lot like a front yard for Paul Allen’s condo’s significantly driving up their value and Allen’s returns.  return to this report's contents:

So what’s wrong with all this if it helps solve the Mercer Mess – put simply city documents say that it doesn’t and may even make things worse?  Turns out these “improvements” do nothing of the kind. Here is a quote from Bill Alves - City Council Staffmember- from last November who was called on to provide memo to the Council summarizing how these improvements would affect levels of congestion in this area.  He's basically quoting from the Parson's Brinkerhoff Transportation Study done about a year or two ago at the City's request.  "Today delay times for the average South Lake Union trip is 3.7 minutes or about 2/3rd of the time to complete trips through the area.  The analysis shows that in 2030 with no improvements, the average trip delay time in South Lake Union will more than double to 8 minutes.  The analysis also indicates that none of the alternatives being contemplated would reduce the 2030 delay time.  The delay time for all alternatives is within a few seconds (out of 8 minutes) of what would occur if no improvements were undertaken and more the double today's times."

"$250 million dollars and climbing yet it won't relieve congestion one iota"

Alves further points out that any slight improvements at one intersection or another is offset by even worse congestion at other intersections in the area.  In other words, after we spend $170 million, there's no improvement to travel times at all or in reducing area congestion. But, Alves points out that from the Mayor and Vulcan’s perspective that’s perfectly OK.  “…the objectives of these improvements are broader than facilitating vehicle movement”  Alves goes on to say.  It means they are going to spend over $170 million to make the "pedestrian and bicycle friendly" and conducive to turning the area into a biotech center. 

My goodness!  A recent analysis by transportation expert and former legislator Dick Nelson reports a 400-500 million dollar backlog of street and sidewalk improvements throughout our neighborhoods that at today’s level of city spending on these neighborhood needs it will take us half a century to complete them.  And we're going to spend $170 million in limited local, state, and federal transit dollars just to make Mercer/Aurora more pedestrian friendly.  For a fraction of that amount, we could create bike lanes until we’re blue in the face around a dozen neighborhoods, widen the sidewalks, add street art, replace the lighting, all sorts of things and still have dough left over for a few more pocket parks in South  Lake Union. return to this report's contents:

Other components of the Mayor/Vulcan’s transportation plans for the area include:

- The Street Car (to nowhere) circling through Paul Allen’s properties down Westlake and back – will cost $45 million with half covered by the public.  The Mayor’s planners tell us that federal and state money will cover most of the public portion of the costs. But “show me the money” Are these grants in hand?  And what are our elected officials doing sending out dozens of city staff and themselves meeting with and cajoling Congress people and Senators for limited federal and state transportation dollars when we have such a backlog of real needs to meet in our area.  I'm betting the City's general fund will get socked for most of this 22-23 million public cost or at least a significant portion. And nobody down at City Hall or at Vulcan has yet to tell us how much this frill will cost annually to operate.  In Portland, it costs the City about 2 million per year to run – paid for out of their general fund.  Documents we have found also indicate they are probably going to have to replace the entire water and sewer systems along streets where the trolley will run.  They’re too old and fragile. It is not clear from documents we have seen thus far whether these little items are figured into the 45 million pricetag for the street car.

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- Also, they plan costly improvements down Terry Avenue where many of Paul Allen's properties are located.  This is a very grand plan and few details have yet to be revealed at least with regard to its cost but it essentially consists of adding residential amenities, lighting, sidewalks and goodness knows what else along this relative undeveloped and industrially oriented street.  Or rather it was industrially oriented until Paul Allen launched his redevelopment plans in that area and where he now owns much of these key properties. Next time you see the Mayor ask him how much this will add to the transportation costs he’s gearing up to spend in South Lake Union. More money will no doubt be drawn from the City's general fund and other limited local, state, and federal sources no doubt.

By the way, we took a look at the City’s 5-Year  Capital Improvement Plan outlining anticipated general fund expenses for the entire city over that period.  The Mayor’s plans for South Lake Union account for over half of all capital expenditures during that period for the entire city.  return to this report's contents:

- Documents we have found also seem to indicate that the Mayor and his planners, helped along by Vulcan, is trying real hard to warp Sound Transit's choice of a northern route from downtown – pushing the Eastlake Route. Vulcan's recent seven page letter commenting on Sound Transit's EIS alternatives argues its best to run light rail down Eastlake.  No agency is saying this, least of all Sound Transit, but city documents suggest that the Mayor may now be quietly promoting this alternative as well.  We found ample evidence that Vulcan and city planners are meeting with the Mayor and working closely together to build a case for this route.  At this point, it seems unlikely that Sound Transit will go for the Eastlake route.  It's far more costly, risky in terms of overruns, and grabs far fewer riders that a Capitol Hill route.  But, that’s OK with Vulcan and Paul Allen (and perhaps our Mayor).  According to Vulcan’s letter an Eastlake route is no problem.  To capture those potential riders who live on Capitol Hill, all we gotta do is build some pedestrian overpasses across I-5.

Oh sure, instead of getting on a bus on Bellevue Street or Broadway, our intrepid Capitol Hillites are going to hike all they way down and cross I-5 to Eastlake for a Sound Transit ride.  For their trip back, Sherpa’s can be made available to assist them back up the hill.    return to top:

And Eastlake Route Also Threatens Low Income Housing and Longtime Businesses:  Also, this Eastlake route threatens the Grandview Apartments, and several shops and businesses including the beloved Lobo Tavern.  Even the Jenson Block owned by the Low Income Housing Institute and one other apartment could be put at risk.  Also, Vulcan is trying to argue that 50-60 percent of the folks who are going to work in South Lake Union are going to ride transit to and from work.  No sane analysis - not SDOT, not Sound Transit...no one would ever say that more than 15% of those workers will ever ride Sound Transit.  Even if South Lake Union experiences the build-out that Vulcan and the Mayor seek down there, levels of ridership never could justify an Eastlake route but that is what apparently our Mayor is now pushing.  return to this report's contents:

Sound Transit Alternate Routes

But here’s the real kicker – Job/Housing Imbalance Exacerbated – The Mayor’s plans for South Lake Union translate directly into more cars and pollution for our communities: Let’s say by some miracle, Seattle captures an inordinate share of the biotech market and Vulcan and the Mayor are able to sandwich an additional 20,000 jobs in South Lake Union over a 15-20 year period.  There is absolutely no way that they going to accompany that level of growth with the 10,000 housing units they say will be built down there over the same time period.  We found several documents where the planners themselves express a high degree of doubt.

The 1995 Growth Management Act projections and more recent Puget Sound Regional Government projections show about 2000 additional housing units will be added to the stock in South Lake Union through 2015.  Since '95 we've only added 370 units with another 320 units in the pipeline.  This relatively slow rate of residential construction, coupled with high rates of vacancies in Belltown and downtown in general, coupled with  other economic factors that are expected to discourage new construction – it means an even slower residential growth rate in South Lake Union over the next several years.  Also, this area is zoned for mixed use and the City just upzoned it allowing for more biotech development that now will take even greater precedence over residential construction.  Even if they now upzone the area for more residential they’re only leveling the playing field again and that alone is not going to accelerate either the supply of residential units in that area.  But the bottom line, most affluent downtown workers and those who will work in South Lake Union, are going to continue to choose to live in suburban single family homes, condo’s on the eastside or homes in Seattle’s outlying neighborhoods.  Study after study indicates that most will bear the burden of longer time-consuming commutes for a larger home in the ‘burbs’.  No amount of social engineering has changed that basic calculus to any great degree. 

This translates into an enormous jobs-housing imbalance.  It's simple math... 20,000 jobs - 2000 housing units in South Lake Union over the next 15-20 years.  Heck, lets even double the number of housing units to 4000 in SLU over that period.  That level of residential construction could happen – four times the amount of housing built in this area in the last 50 years.  This means of course that you've got perhaps another 12000-14000 commuters over the 20 year period pouring into SLU.  Let's say 60 percent take the bus or sound transit.  (Rather optimistic I’d say but what the heck).  That still leaves about 6000 driving their cars in from Bellevue or far north end Seattle neighborhoods, clogging our freeways, arterials, side streets, etc - more noise, air pollution, auto congestion, gas guzzling, global warming energy consumption,  etc.  So much for Vulcan’s claim that their grand vision for this area will be energy efficient and environmentally conscious.  So much for the buzzword “sustainability, they repeatedly use to characterize their plans in South Lake Union  return to this report's contents:    

- And more housing losses, demolition and gentrification will also result:

And I almost forgot, this job-housing imbalance also will have an enormous impact on housing prices in our city - more pressure for more density which means more low income housing demolitions, more speculative sale, higher rents, conversion, and redevelopment.  City officials only solution is always to add density which of course only accelerated the removal of existing lower density truly affordable housing in our city.  Density, density, density, that’s the Mayor’s only solution….but it ain’t gonna happen in South Lake Union not at anywhere the levels needed to mitigate the growing jobs-housing gap.  South Lake Union simply isn’t the place to sandwich that amount of development   return to this report's contents:

Despite Environmental Consequences – Several environmental groups may buy off on the Mayor’s South Lake Union Agenda:

This is a scenario that our Mayor is playing out in South Lake Union.  Last week, the Mayor’s staff and Vulcan representatives met with several environmental groups and pro-transit groups including the Transportation Choices Coalition, Sierra Club, and 1000 Friends of Washington.  I’ve also heard that these groups are considering trading their support for Vulcan and the Mayor’s plans in South Lake Union if in return Vulcan pledges to provide a few amenities down there for pedestrians and bicycles, maybe a green building or two…stuff like that.  It boggles my mind.  Is that naïveté or are they just plain gonna sell out? I hope neither.

- John V. Fox

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1. SLU Park Water Mains –  $155,000

2. SLU-CSO (Combined Sewer Outflow Project) – KC – $830,000

3.  More for SLU CSO – $260,000

Items 2 and 3 above are part of the City and King Co. Metro’s on-going project at the Southend of Lake Union.  Started in late ’99, it’s a 140 million dollar project that redirects treated stormwater runnoff from South Lake Union area through a tunnel to Elliot Bay seperating the sewage and other effluents and routing them to Westpoint Treatment.  It’s not clear what these 2005 funds will go towards or why they’re needed)

4.  Feasibility Study of separating stormwater drainage from sewer system:  $180,000 (2004-2005 dollars) paid for from water rates – this is being pushed by Vulcan and the Mayor’s office as part of their “sustainability strategy”.  If they go ahead ultimately with creation of a separate "integrated" storm drainage system, it would cost millions and possibly carry negative environmental consequences since the plan would call for rerouting runnoff from the South Lake Union area now going into the recently completed SLU CSO and once again rerouting it back into Lake Union (albeit “treated” but there still could be environmental problems based on the city's own studies)

5.  Streetcar Design and Construction (Council authorized recently the release of  about 2 million, mostly state dollars earmarked for the trolley thanks to Ed Murray who quietly inserted these dollars into the state’s budget last year).  See 2005-2010 CIP for totals budgeted over the next five years which are approximately 45 million with more budgeted to help cover yearly operating costs (estimated at $1.4 to $2.0 million/yr).  Funding sources to cover these costs are marked “to be determined later”.  The Mayor is seeking state and federal dollars to cover most of these costs but getting these dollars is very problematic.  Under any circumstance, several million in general fund dollars will be needed if this project goes forward.

6.  The Mayor has just succeeded to obtaining a City Council Committee's approval of the release of $1.6 million for continued planning and completion of the EIS for Mercer changes euphemistically called “improvements” that call for a 2-way 200 million dollar re-working of Mercer.  These are city general fund dollars committed in 2004 but could have been reprogrammed for needs in 2005 budget. Despite city studies showing this plan won't relieve congestion at all in that area, Most City Councilmembers and the Mayor are moving forward with this approach identified as the "preferred alternative".  The 2005-2010 CIP identifies about 100 million budgeted over the next five years for this project with the big hits on the city budget in  2006 and beyond.  Some of this cost could be covered from state and federal dollars but a large portion would require use of local funds.  Where there is a budget line to indicate “source of funding” the Mayor says “To Be Determined Later”.

** Note that when you look at the 2005-2010 CIP, you’ll see that of the 200 million in new capital projects that will be pursued by SDOT over those years, 140-145 million is budgeted for two projects – the Mercer corridor and the SLU Streetcar.

7. Parking Management Study for SLU – $30,000 (note that Seattle Department of Transportation (SDOT) documents indicate planning has been going on for a 1000 car underground parking garage between Valley and Mercer and extending 3-blocks from Westlake to Fairview.  Vulcan would build it and the city would lease stalls.  Don’t forget, the City just approved rezones in the area for biotech development including a substantial reduction in their parking requirement. Now they are launching a study at public expense that is no doubt going to be drawn up to justify construction of a garage at least partially funded with our tax dollars.  In otherwords, the City cuts developer parking requirements, then socks the taxpayers with the cost of a study and later a parking garage.

8.  Seattle City Light plans to spend $3.4 million in 2005 to buy site for a new South Lake Union Energy Substation.  City Light says this will be absorbed (paid for) through the existing rate structure.  But some of these costs could be passed on in form of higher rates unless City Light adds a new tier for large new users.  The City Council in 2005 will review the rate structure and decide then whether or not these costs will be passed on to all us ratepayers in the form if higher rates or they will add a large new user tier ensuring developers in SLU pay the cost.  Also, more of the costs of this purchase and ultimately the cost of building the new substation itself could be passed on to the city's ratepayers if the speculative growth projected for South Lake Union in the end does not occur - if the City doesn't realize an explosion of biotech and office development in that area. 

9.  Balloon Payment on Roy St. Site – $5.2 million (City Light purchased a property at Roy street in South Lake Union a few years ago as a “place holder”.  It was not intended to be suitable for a substation. SCL anticipates selling the site and then using the proceeds to help them purchase a viable site for their SLU substation.  City Light could very well see the Roy St. site to Vulcan Inc.

10.  Water mains along Terry, Westlake, Mercer and Valley must be moved to make way for the planned streetcar, narrowed Valley, and 2-way Mercer – 2 million.  It's indicated that this cost will be paid for from water rates. Additional projects planned along these lines include:

-         Drainage and Wastewater improvements totaling 1.3 million in 2005 and 1.2 million in 2006 – projects include funding for improvements in SLU in conjunction with SLU planned Mercer, street car, and Terry/Westlake street improvements

-         Drainage and Wastewater improvements totaling 349,000 in 2005 and 400,000 in 2006 projects to be funded include improvements in SLU in conjunction with transportation improvements in that area

Note:

* The streetcar would require  $1.4- $2 million per year in operating expenses.  This would be paid for out of general fund monies or another option being considered.... bus service for Seattle would be traded away.  In return, King County/METRO would operate and maintain the streetcar.  The Mayor’s office says that they’ll ask for “only” about 3 million in city general funds for construction of the streetcar but its likely to be a whole lot more since the total cost of the project will likely exceed 45 million (perhaps by as much as $10-15 million  given the costs of comparable projects undertaken around the country) – and much of the funding for it is “to be determined – TBD” later).

*  Most of the funding for the Mercer Corridor and the Streetcar project have not yet been found and likely will cost many millions in city funding over the next five years if they go forward with it.  The 2005-2010 CIP identifies about 150 million in total costs for the trolley and Mercer – expenses that make up for fully 60 percent of funding designated for new transportation projects for the City through 2010. (See CIP Plan)

*  From 2001-2004, we have documents indicating the City’s Transportation Department (SDOT) committed and spent $9 million just on planning for SLU transportation “improvements” including the streetcar, Terry and Mercer Improvements.  One SDOT memo from 2002 we found indicates that 298 meetings were planned just for planning the changes to the Mercer Corridor with an estimated cost of $400,000 exclusively for staff hours allocated to attendance at these meetings.  Also, we have memos and minutes from 80 weekly meetings held from the Summer of 2002 through April 2004 of the South Lake Union Project Team that regularly involved 15- 20 top level staff from all city departments.  This group continues to meet at least three times a month.  Over 25 city staff from the Mayor’s office and all departments including department heads or key staff are assigned to this team.  Based on our review of documents, perhaps as much as 20-25% of the staff time for several city departments including the Department of Planning and Development, Office of Housing, Fleets and Facilities, Public Utilities, Office of Sustainability, Mayor’s Office, SDOT, Intergovernmental Relations, Seattle City Light goes towards SLU Planning and working on the Mayor’s Agenda for that area.  Numerous consultants have been hired as well including Parson’s Brinkerhoff, and Ken Johnson.

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