Displacement Coalition Bulletin

A Look at the Mayor and Paul Allen/Vulcan’s Transportation Plans for South Lake Union – Environmentally Sound Choices for Seattle and the Region Are Sacrificed to Meet Paul Allen’s Needs

* Documents show Vulcan dictating Mayor's transportation agenda in South Lake Union while Council left in dark

* Regional and Local Transportation Priorities Are Warped to Meet Vulcan’s Needs

The Seattle Displacement Coalition has been busy reviewing city documents and reviewing detailed information on the City’s plans for South Lake Union (SLU). After a close review of these materials, here’s our report on the City’s transportation plans for South Lake Union, what it will cost, and our analysis of its impacts on our communities and region:

- The Coalition’s disclosure requests show countless hours of staff time allocated to the Mayor’s plans, much of it with Vulcan’s direct involvement but not our City Council:

Over the last 18 months, the Mayor’s planning office has convened over 60 meetings of the “South Lake Union Planning Team” to map out the Mayor’s overall strategy for South Lake Union. In meetings that last anywhere from 1-2 hours, the group delves into every nuance of its plans including how to ensure proper press coverage. The meetings are attended by 10-20 staff across departments including the Mayor’s Office, City Light, Seattle Department of Transportation, the Planning Department, Utilities Department and others. Clearly the focus of our allegedly “objective” planners down at City Hall is not whether we should launch a major effort in South Lake Union nor is it even an attempt to uncover costs and impacts before we proceed. The Mayor has told them to jump and rather than asking “how high?”, they’ve just started jumping and jumping and jumping.

While you or your neighborhood organization may have trouble locating even one staffmember to help you out, literally hundreds and hundreds of hours of staff time have been dedicated solely to the task of implementing the Mayor’s South Lake Union Strategy. Subgroups and Advisory Groups have spun-off from these meetings. Several million dollars have been allocated for studies and consultants alone. What’s also noteworthy, most of this is being done without the City Council’s knowledge. They simply are not part of these discussions either by choice or more likely because the Mayor has purposely left them out. By contrast, our review of city documents indicates that much of this planning has been closely coordinated with Paul Allen’s Vulcan Development company. Its team of staff (a number of whom are former city staff themselves) often sit in on these closed door meetings and discussions. The Mayor has given full authorization to this effort and is regularly briefed by city and Vulcan staff. return to contents:

A significant portion of these discussions, research and subsequent planning work has been focused on making over $250 million dollar worth of transportation “improvements” to the South Lake Union area. I have placed “improvements” in quotes because our review suggests these are not improvements at all at least not in terms of making a discernible positive impact on our local and regional transportation picture and they are as distant as any set of solutions could be to the sustainable, eco-friendly, transit-friendly nirvana portrayed by our Mayor and the Vulcan team.

Here's a breakdown of what right now is planned for South Lake Union and what it will cost both in dollar terms and other impacts. return to contents:

- The total includes $80 million dollars disguised as the “Viaduct Northern Portal” but really is a South Lake Union Improvement involving "reconnecting the grid" across Aurora between Seattle Center and the SLU with $68 million drawn from regional transportation package (RTID). Bridges for cars and pedestrians would be built across Aurora north of the Battery St. reconnecting the Center to SLU. One option calls for lidding Aurora at an additional $50 million to $100 million, but that was not included in the plan the Mayor announced last November. Keep your eyes out and your ears pealed in case they later put this component back into their plan.

Take note, they are disguising this as a viaduct improvement and and enveloping 68 million of the $80 million dollar cost into the Regional Transportation Package (RTID) – to be placed before County voters later this year or next year. Note also, that right now, the regional body of electeds putting this package together are regularly consulting with a select “advisory group” that includes Vulcan representatives. Note also that the package they’ve drawn up does not begin to meet all of the Viaduct’s total financial need running to as much as a billion or more dollars.

Alaskan Way Viaduct In fact, as the Stranger recently reported, RTID does not include vital funding for the most unsafe part of the viaduct - the key central portion. But yet our electeds with a little nudging from Vulcan have managed to find 68 million to "reconnect the grid" to serve Paul Allen. Adding this component to the Regional Transportation Package and calling it a viaduct improvement is a gross distortion of reality that some might call obscene especially when the package does not include funding for the vital central portion of the viaduct. According to the Mayor’s office the City’s general fund will pick up the tab for the remaining $12 million dollar cost of this component. Parenthetically many pundits are saying it's highly unlikely the RTID's going to secure voter approval. In otherwords, the package already is on shakey ground – ground that will turn to quicksand when the voters find out about shenanigans like this. What's the Mercer Corridor have to do with fixing this?

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- The total also includes 90 million for Mercer/Valley reconfiguration with 71 million of it drawn from regional transportation package (RTID). The Mayor’s office is calling this a regional solution and therefore worthy of tacking into the regional transportation package. When voters find out it will do nothing to improve congestion and travel times through that area – not one iota (see below for proof of that) it’s more likely to just another nail in the RTID coffin. City General fund will be used to cover $19 million of the the $71 million dollar cost. By the way, these “improvements” will likely require the City to buy back the property along Mercer that it sold two years ago to Vulcan at a cut rate (that sale of five city properties is an interesting story in itself for one for another time). Those properties cost Vulcan $20 million – a steal – they’re now worth at least twice that. By a reconfiguration, these “improvements” call for narrowing Valley fronting Lake Union, providing pedestrian amenities and access across Valley to the $25 million dollar park and lake, while making Mercer a 2-way street. This also happens to conveniently move or rather situate Vulcan's properties closer to the lake. With the park and pedestrian connections from Vulcan’s properties to the park, the park begins to look a lot like a front yard for Paul Allen’s condo’s significantly driving up their value and Allen’s returns. return to contents:

So what’s wrong with all this if it helps solve the Mercer Mess – put simply city documents say that it doesn’t and may even make things worse? Turns out these “improvements” do nothing of the kind. Here is a quote from Bill Alves - City Council Staffmember- from last November who was called on to provide memo to the Council summarizing how these improvements would affect levels of congestion in this area. He's basically quoting from the Parson's Brinkerhoff Transportation Study done about a year or two ago at the City's request. "Today delay times for the average South Lake Union trip is 3.7 minutes or about 2/3rd of the time to complete trips through the area. The analysis shows that in 2030 with no improvements, the average trip delay time in South Lake Union will more than double to 8 minutes. The analysis also indicates that none of the alternatives being contemplated would reduce the 2030 delay time. The delay time for all alternatives is within a few seconds (out of 8 minutes) of what would occur if no improvements were undertaken and more the double today's times."

"$250 million dollars and climbing yet it won't relieve congestion one iota"

Alves further points out that any slight improvements at one intersection or another is offset by even worse congestion at other intersections in the area. In other words, after we spend $170 million, there's no improvement to travel times at all or in reducing area congestion. But, Alves points out that from the Mayor and Vulcan’s perspective that’s perfectly OK. “…the objectives of these improvements are broader than facilitating vehicle movement” Alves goes on to say. It means they are going to spend over $170 million to make the "pedestrian and bicycle friendly" and conducive to turning the area into a biotech center.

My goodness! A recent analysis by transportation expert and former legislator Dick Nelson reports a 400-500 million dollar backlog of street and sidewalk improvements throughout our neighborhoods that at today’s level of city spending on these neighborhood needs it will take us half a century to complete them. And we're going to spend $170 million in limited local, state, and federal transit dollars just to make Mercer/Aurora more pedestrian friendly. For a fraction of that amount, we could create bike lanes until we’re blue in the face around a dozen neighborhoods, widen the sidewalks, add street art, replace the lighting, all sorts of things and still have dough left over for a few more pocket parks in South Lake Union. return to contents:

Other components of the Mayor/Vulcan’s transportation plans for the area include:

- The Street Car (to nowhere) circling through Paul Allen’s properties down Westlake and back – will cost $45 million with half covered by the public. The Mayor’s planners tell us that federal and state money will cover most of the public portion of the costs. But “show me the money” Are these grants in hand? And what are our elected officials doing sending out dozens of city staff and themselves meeting with and cajoling Congress people and Senators for limited federal and state transportation dollars when we have such a backlog of real needs to meet in our area. I'm betting the City's general fund will get socked for most of this 22-23 million public cost or at least a significant portion. And nobody down at City Hall or at Vulcan has yet to tell us how much this frill will cost annually to operate. In Portland, it costs the City about 2 million per year to run – paid for out of their general fund. Documents we have found also indicate they are probably going to have to replace the entire water and sewer systems along streets where the trolley will run. They’re too old and fragile. It is not clear from documents we have seen thus far whether these little items are figured into the 45 million pricetag for the street car.

- Also, they plan costly improvements down Terry Avenue where many of Paul Allen's properties are located. This is a very grand plan and few details have yet to be revealed at least with regard to its cost but it essentially consists of adding residential amenities, lighting, sidewalks and goodness knows what else along this relative undeveloped and industrially oriented street. Or rather it was industrially oriented until Paul Allen launched his redevelopment plans in that area and where he now owns much of these key properties. Next time you see the Mayor ask him how much this will add to the transportation costs he’s gearing up to spend in South Lake Union. More money will no doubt be drawn from the City's general fund and other limited local, state, and federal sources no doubt.

By the way, we took a look at the City’s 5-Year Capital Improvement Plan outlining anticipated general fund expenses for the entire city over that period. The Mayor’s plans for South Lake Union account for over half of all capital expenditures during that period for the entire city. return to contents:

- Documents we have found also seem to indicate that the Mayor and his planners, helped along by Vulcan, is trying real hard to warp Sound Transit's choice of a northern route from downtown – pushing the Eastlake Route. Vulcan's recent seven page letter commenting on Sound Transit's EIS alternatives argues its best to run light rail down Eastlake. No agency is saying this, least of all Sound Transit, but city documents suggest that the Mayor may now be quietly promoting this alternative as well. We found ample evidence that Vulcan and city planners are meeting with the Mayor and working closely together to build a case for this route. At this point, it seems unlikely that Sound Transit will go for the Eastlake route. It's far more costly, risky in terms of overruns, and grabs far fewer riders that a Capitol Hill route. But, that’s OK with Vulcan and Paul Allen (and perhaps our Mayor). According to Vulcan’s letter an Eastlake route is no problem. To capture those potential riders who live on Capitol Hill, all we gotta do is build some pedestrian overpasses across I-5.

Oh sure, instead of getting on a bus on Bellevue Street or Broadway, our intrepid Capitol Hillites are going to hike all they way down and cross I-5 to Eastlake for a Sound Transit ride. For their trip back, Sherpa’s can be made available to assist them back up the hill. return to top:

And Eastlake Route Also Threatens Low Income Housing and Longtime Businesses: Also, this Eastlake route threatens the Grandview Apartments, and several shops and businesses including the beloved Lobo Tavern. Even the Jenson Block owned by the Low Income Housing Institute and one other apartment could be put at risk. Also, Vulcan is trying to argue that 50-60 percent of the folks who are going to work in South Lake Union are going to ride transit to and from work. No sane analysis - not SDOT, not Sound Transit...no one would ever say that more than 15% of those workers will ever ride Sound Transit. Even if South Lake Union experiences the build-out that Vulcan and the Mayor seek down there, levels of ridership never could justify an Eastlake route but that is what apparently our Mayor is now pushing. return to contents:

But here’s the real kicker – Job/Housing Imbalance Exacerbated – The Mayor’s plans for South Lake Union translate directly into more cars and pollution for our communities: Let’s say by some miracle, Seattle captures an inordinate share of the biotech market and Vulcan and the Mayor are able to sandwich an additional 20,000 jobs in South Lake Union over a 15-20 year period. There is absolutely no way that they going to accompany that level of growth with the 10,000 housing units they say will be built down there over the same time period. We found several documents where the planners themselves express a high degree of doubt.

The 1995 Growth Management Act projections and more recent Puget Sound Regional Government projections show about 2000 additional housing units will be added to the stock in South Lake Union through 2015. Since '95 we've only added 370 units with another 320 units in the pipeline. This relatively slow rate of residential construction, coupled with high rates of vacancies in Belltown and downtown in general, coupled with other economic factors that are expected to discourage new construction – it means an even slower residential growth rate in South Lake Union over the next several years. Also, this area is zoned for mixed use and the City just upzoned it allowing for more biotech development that now will take even greater precedence over residential construction. Even if they now upzone the area for more residential they’re only leveling the playing field again and that alone is not going to accelerate either the supply of residential units in that area. But the bottom line, most affluent downtown workers and those who will work in South Lake Union, are going to continue to choose to live in suburban single family homes, condo’s on the eastside or homes in Seattle’s outlying neighborhoods. Study after study indicates that most will bear the burden of longer time-consuming commutes for a larger home in the ‘burbs’. No amount of social engineering has changed that basic calculus to any great degree.

This translates into an enormous jobs-housing imbalance. It's simple math... 20,000 jobs - 2000 housing units in South Lake Union over the next 15-20 years. Heck, lets even double the number of housing units to 4000 in SLU over that period. That level of residential construction could happen – four times the amount of housing built in this area in the last 50 years. This means of course that you've got perhaps another 12000-14000 commuters over the 20 year period pouring into SLU. Let's say 60 percent take the bus or sound transit. (Rather optimistic I’d say but what the heck). That still leaves about 6000 driving their cars in from Bellevue or far north end Seattle neighborhoods, clogging our freeways, arterials, side streets, etc - more noise, air pollution, auto congestion, gas guzzling, global warming energy consumption, etc. So much for Vulcan’s claim that their grand vision for this area will be energy efficient and environmentally conscious. So much for the buzzword “sustainability, they repeatedly use to characterize their plans in South Lake Union return to contents:

And I almost forgot, this job-housing imbalance also will have an enormous impact on housing prices in our city - more pressure for more density which means more low income housing demolitions, more speculative sale, higher rents, conversion, and redevelopment. City officials only solution is always to add density which of course only accelerated the removal of existing lower density truly affordable housing in our city. Density, density, density, that’s the Mayor’s only solution….but it ain’t gonna happen in South Lake Union not at anywhere the levels needed to mitigate the growing jobs-housing gap. South Lake Union simply isn’t the place to sandwich that amount of development return to contents:

This is a scenario that our Mayor is playing out in South Lake Union. Last week, the Mayor’s staff and Vulcan representatives met with several environmental groups and pro-transit groups including the Transportation Choices Coalition, Sierra Club, and 1000 Friends of Washington. I’ve also heard that these groups are considering trading their support for Vulcan and the Mayor’s plans in South Lake Union if in return Vulcan pledges to provide a few amenities down there for pedestrians and bicycles, maybe a green building or two…stuff like that. It boggles my mind. Is that naïveté or are they just plain gonna sell out? I hope neither.